India’s trade trends: Slump in traditional exports offset by electronics surge; outflows rise ahead of tariff deadline, says GTRI

India’s merchandise trade data for June 2025 reveals a mixed picture, with imports declining and exports largely flat, according to a fresh analysis by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).Figures released by the ministry of commerce on Tuesday showed that merchandise exports stood at $35.14 billion, recording a marginal rise of just 0.05% compared to June 2024.Among the bright spots, electronics exports jumped 47.1% to $2.8 billion, driven largely by a surge in iPhone and smartphone shipments to key markets such as the United States, as exporters rushed to beat anticipated tariff hikes.However, this growth was offset by sharp declines in traditional sectors. Gems and jewellery exports plunged 20.4% to $1.78 billion, while petroleum product exports slipped 15.9% to $4.6 billion, both impacted by weaker global demand and softer crude prices.On the import side, the numbers pointed to a clear downward trend. Goods imports fell by 3.7% year-on-year to $53.9 billion, mainly due to a 25.7% drop in gold imports, which shrank to $7.5 billion. Similarly, crude and petroleum imports fell 8.4% to $13.8 billion, and coal and coke imports slid 19.1% to $7.75 billion, reflecting better domestic availability.Yet, some categories saw an uptick. Electronics imports climbed 9.5% to $8.4 billion, while machinery and computer imports increased by 8.5% to $4.4 billion, indicating robust investment activity in domestic assembly and manufacturing.Country-wise, exports to the U.S. surged 23.5% to $8.3 billion, reinforcing its position as India’s largest export market. In contrast, exports to China remained modest at $1.4 billion, though they posted a 17.2% year-on-year rise.Meanwhile, India imported $9.5 billion worth of goods from China in June, marking a 2.5% increase from a year ago.The June 2025 trade data point to an ongoing shift in India’s export landscape, with high-import-intensity sectors like electronics expanding steadily, even as traditional labour-intensive sectors either stagnate or decline.